Will their be a World Economic Crunch by Easter 2008?

No - stop stirring the scheisse you naughty man
6
10%
No - we've been through worse in recent history
1
2%
Not a crunch, but more like a significant slow-down
9
15%
Not a slow-down, but more like stagnation
3
5%
It's going to get a bit ugly, but NZ will be pretty insulated
7
12%
It'll be raining sharebrokers for a few days, but no worse than 1987
10
17%
I'm calling the second Great Depression... buttcakes
9
15%
Apocalypse Now! Stock up on canned food and get in your bunker!
15
25%
 
Total voters : 60

Postby JumpR on Fri 20/Jun/08 9:23am

Tama wrote: Just to help you sleep at night :thumbsup:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25237074 wrote:The Royal Bank of Scotland issued a stark warning to investors Wednesday, stating global stock and credit markets could be on the verge of a steep market sell-off as central banks have their hands tied by soaring inflation, the Telegraph reported.

"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," Bob Janjuah, credit strategist at RBS, told the UK daily paper.

The S&P 500 index is likely to slump by more than 300 points by September, according to a report from the bank’s research team, as "all the chickens come home to roost" from over-easy lending practices and other excesses of the global boom period, the report quoted by the Telegraph said.

"I do not think I can be much blunter. If you have to be in credit, focus on quality, short durations, non-cyclical defensive names. Cash is the key safe haven. This is about not losing your money, and not losing your job," Janjuah told the paper.

RBS expects US stocks to continue to gain until early July before the effects of the oil spike start to drag on momentum, the Telegraph said.

Bob Janjuah was not immediately available for comment.


Interesting that Janjuah says that 'cash is the key safe haven'. If things really do turn to custard, devaluing currencies and inflation would indicate to me that cash may not be such a safe haven. I reckon buying potato seeds would be a safer bet :eh:
JumpR
User avatar
Member for: 16 years 7 months

Postby Tama on Fri 20/Jun/08 10:58am

JumpR wrote:
Tama wrote: Just to help you sleep at night :thumbsup:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25237074 wrote:The Royal Bank of Scotland issued a stark warning to investors Wednesday, stating global stock and credit markets could be on the verge of a steep market sell-off as central banks have their hands tied by soaring inflation, the Telegraph reported.

"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," Bob Janjuah, credit strategist at RBS, told the UK daily paper.

The S&P 500 index is likely to slump by more than 300 points by September, according to a report from the bank’s research team, as "all the chickens come home to roost" from over-easy lending practices and other excesses of the global boom period, the report quoted by the Telegraph said.

"I do not think I can be much blunter. If you have to be in credit, focus on quality, short durations, non-cyclical defensive names. Cash is the key safe haven. This is about not losing your money, and not losing your job," Janjuah told the paper.

RBS expects US stocks to continue to gain until early July before the effects of the oil spike start to drag on momentum, the Telegraph said.

Bob Janjuah was not immediately available for comment.


Interesting that Janjuah says that 'cash is the key safe haven'. If things really do turn to custard, devaluing currencies and inflation would indicate to me that cash may not be such a safe haven. I reckon buying potato seeds would be a safer bet :eh:
Gold FTW :thumbsup:
Tama
User avatar
"Come on Ruthie let's dance"
Member for: 16 years 9 months

Postby happybaboon on Fri 20/Jun/08 11:02am

Price of gold is already astronomically high though, innit? :eh:
happybaboon
User avatar
"Proud owner of vorb's largest"
Member for: 16 years 7 months

Postby Dazzle on Fri 20/Jun/08 11:03am

Hmmm - people pulling out of markets oveseas to go to cash may well hold the NZ dollar up - as they then go looking for high deposit interest rates and move their money over to NZ.
Dazzle
User avatar
Member for: 16 years 7 months

Postby hickie on Fri 20/Jun/08 11:11am

Nope,

Reserve bank has indicated NZ rates are only heading down from now and all the market evidence supports that proposition so the NZ dollar only has one way to go in expectation of that happening and it ain't up....

Now is probably a good time to be involved with exporting or import substitution and not so good to be involved in importing or retailing...
hickie
User avatar
"I've got a singletrack mind..."
Member for: 12 years 10 months

Postby Dazzle on Thu 31/Jul/08 12:36am

Dazzle
User avatar
Member for: 16 years 7 months

Postby phunk on Tue 12/Aug/08 10:57am

http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/200 ... their.html

some of the best sentences I've read in years:

In the mortgage market, people saw risk-takers outperforming prudent lenders. So they took more risks. There is no simple fix for that. For the foreseeable future, we can count on investors sticking to prudence when it comes to mortgage lending. We don't need any regulations to close that barn door.

But somewhere, some time, in some other market, there will be another outbreak of excessive risk-taking. You can't make the system idiot-proof. They'll just build a better idiot.

This is probably the most important pragmatic argument against paternalism. No matter how many laws you pass, there will always be high-risk investment strategies that happened to do well in the recent past. Foolish people who want to get rich quick will always be able to find these assets. Before long, the fools will be parted from their money. To make the whole economy revolve around their lack of foresight is just silly.
phunk
User avatar
Member for: 14 years 6 months

Postby radical_edward on Tue 12/Aug/08 11:14am

Don't worry about risk. The Christchurch council will bail you out, lest the bargain basement inner city properties become slums....

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/sto ... d=10526525
radical_edward
User avatar
"Fast-casual."
Member for: 14 years 6 months

Postby happybaboon on Sun 28/Dec/08 3:32pm

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4804782a19716.html

I like the NZ soothsayer:

Gould also worries about the move away from a Christian-based society to one with a multitude of different groups with different values.

There was the risk of New Zealand becoming an incoherent society, with a significant number of people "who don't respect anything", he said.


Non-Christian = must not respect anything :lol: Tard.
happybaboon
User avatar
"Proud owner of vorb's largest"
Member for: 16 years 7 months

Postby nzmatto on Sun 28/Dec/08 4:23pm

happybaboon wrote: http://www.stuff.co.nz/4804782a19716.html

I like the NZ soothsayer:

Gould also worries about the move away from a Christian-based society to one with a multitude of different groups with different values.

There was the risk of New Zealand becoming an incoherent society, with a significant number of people "who don't respect anything", he said.


Non-Christian = must not respect anything :lol: Tard.


dunno about non-Christians not respecting anything, that's a bit harsh.
My take is I'll go for a 50/50. The bible talks about there being a major financial crisis that brings ultimately works to bring in a one world government. To me looking from here and considering the peace (or lack of it) in Israel, makes me wonder if this is the financial crisis that it is talking about. The only thing that seems to be missing is the fact that no-one seems to have any chance of standing up and actually creating a one world type government.....me thinks if anyone tried at the moment ever second country would go "meh" not for us -- and the others would fight over it.

Certainly I don't think it is the time for any consumer debt. If you have money in the bank you may as well make the most of some of it through bagging some bargains, but don't borrow to buy bargains. This is bad....always.
nzmatto
User avatar
"Cycling changed my life."
Member for: 10 years 1 month

Postby j2hyde on Sun 28/Dec/08 4:36pm

The bible talks about all kinds of random things. They don't actually mean anything in reality though - you can find parallels to global events in all kinds of fairy stories. eg: in Cinderella, when the clock struck midnight and the coach turned into a pumpkin - well the GFC was the metaphorical midnight hour and the global credit market turned back into the pumkin it always was. Sounds like a bunch of crap? Well so does the bible.

The funny thing about people that claim our society is based on "christian values" is they don't seem to understand that those values existed prior to (and in spite of) christianity, and were adopted by the early church. The whole christian religion is just a hodge podge of ideals, festivals and beliefs ripped off a bunch of other more ancient religions and movements. Naturally, adherants to those religions (ie pagans, jews) were persecuted and murdured by christians.
j2hyde
User avatar
"I'm not for that. I'm for the ladies."
Member for: 13 years 0 months

Postby E Dogg Capizzle on Sun 28/Dec/08 5:56pm

nzmatto wrote: The bible talks about there being a major financial crisis that brings ultimately works to bring in a one world government. To me looking from here and considering the peace (or lack of it) in Israel, makes me wonder if this is the financial crisis that it is talking about.


But the Bible is full of shit. :D
E Dogg Capizzle
User avatar
"Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man."
Member for: 16 years 0 months

Postby Sims on Sun 28/Dec/08 6:06pm

One of the key fuck-ups of christians, is taking scriptures out of context. One world government? Financial crisis? Israel and world unrest? Come-on. Thats a bit Barry 'Nostradamis' smith ain't it? Isn't that what they say everything time there's a crisis? Oh if i had a nickel for every time a christian prophesies the end of world. (Don't they do that every decade? Or every war, depression, famine, actually any crisis will do) The U.N. is not the one world government, anymore than Georgie-pie Bush, being the Anti-Christ. They're both more of an anti climax

How about looking at "revelation" in context with the history books, rather than reading fictional literature about the rapturous rapture. I think you'll find we're much further along, than the 80ites "end times" cold war influenced christian rhetoric would have you believe.

And Israel; Surely if you read the your bible, you should realise that they stopped being anything special in the new testament. God was generous enough to stop being Israelis god and get in there and become god for everyone... Hence that important dying for all mankind business. Then there's all that symbolism of the inner curtain of the tabernacle being torn apart, thus reliving the holy of holys to everyone. (Given historically how dumb, stubborn and consistency useless Israelis were, I'm surprised they never got genocided)

Oh the joys of organised religion. Nothing like robbing an individuals ability to think and reason. Don't wanna be to humanist now, do we. Much easier to just trust and believe. ;)
Sims
Member for: 16 years 1 month

Postby happybaboon on Sun 28/Dec/08 6:19pm

nzmatto wrote:The only thing that seems to be missing is the fact that no-one seems to have any chance of standing up and actually creating a one world type government.....me thinks if anyone tried at the moment ever second country would go "meh" not for us -- and the others would fight over it.


The only nations who have the power to create a one-world government are the nations that have shitloads to lose by doing so. If the US or China suddenly decided to enact a worldwide policy of "one law for all" then all of a sudden they would find themselves being held accountable for all the naughty shit that they do (Iraq, Israel, Tibet, summary executions, extraordinary rendition, torture, chemical and biological weapons (c'mon... you just KNOW that they've both still got all that shit :D ).... and so on. So a one-world government just isn't going to happen.
happybaboon
User avatar
"Proud owner of vorb's largest"
Member for: 16 years 7 months

Postby Sims on Sun 28/Dec/08 6:22pm

Thats not what Tamaki said last night. He's got loverly soft hands
Sims
Member for: 16 years 1 month

Economy | Sifting - Latest Posts

Who is online

45 Users browsing this website: DotBot, Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot] and 41 guests

REMEBER TO CLICK THE LINKS WHEN BUYING FROM VORB SUPPORTERS


  • Chain Reaction Cycles
  • GT Bicycles
  • ProBikeKit
  • Vorb Shop
  • Wiggle