Will their be a World Economic Crunch by Easter 2008?

No - stop stirring the scheisse you naughty man
6
10%
No - we've been through worse in recent history
1
2%
Not a crunch, but more like a significant slow-down
9
15%
Not a slow-down, but more like stagnation
3
5%
It's going to get a bit ugly, but NZ will be pretty insulated
7
12%
It'll be raining sharebrokers for a few days, but no worse than 1987
10
17%
I'm calling the second Great Depression... buttcakes
9
15%
Apocalypse Now! Stock up on canned food and get in your bunker!
15
25%
 
Total voters : 60

Postby happybaboon on Thu 3/Jan/08 10:35am

Oh dear. It seems the end is nigh :0

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4343687a13.html
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Postby bicyclegod on Fri 4/Jan/08 2:25pm

[ties rope]
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Postby psychavoc on Fri 4/Jan/08 4:07pm

Blast! http://www.stuff.co.nz/4344033a10.html

Time to find those 4c a litre New World vouchers :huh:
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Postby slidecontrol on Fri 4/Jan/08 5:09pm

its pandemonium down here!

we're advising everyone to invest in canned food and shotguns!
gremlins.jpg
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Postby Dazzle on Fri 4/Jan/08 5:41pm

Put a carrier and basket on your bike, grow a beard and become a hippy commuter.

If you can grow a beard that is.
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Postby Jono on Fri 4/Jan/08 7:31pm

propster wrote: Damn, just as QV added $100,000 to the value of our property.

I'll just go pack my bags :lol:


Yar - I'm not suggesting that the insane price rises are going to be maintained, but our QV has gone up 120K (for next years valuation) on what it was when we bought it. Which, if nothing else, makes me feel better about the amount we paid :)
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Postby Tama on Wed 23/Jan/08 8:11am

Heh :huh:

Bass! how low can you go?
Death row. what a brother knows.
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Postby Beeker on Wed 23/Jan/08 9:01am

bicyclegod wrote: [ties rope]


[gets chair for BG - offers to kick it out]

[Beeker feels somewhat smug that he didn't buy a house when property developers kept bugging him to do so. Invested in bikes instead. Bound to both hold & increase in value :paranoid: ]
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RE: Who Wants To Call A World Economic Crunch By Easter 2008

Postby Tama on Tue 18/Mar/08 8:09am

In November Tama wrote: The boom that the world economy has been going through over the past 5 years seems to have been built on loaning funny money to people who can't necessarily afford the debt: http://www.vorb.org.nz/ftopict-57194.html

As HDC has described here:
http://www.vorb.org.nz/ftopicp-1529898.html#1529898 wrote:the subprime thing is a bit of a misnomer. My understanding is it works like this:

Punter A goes into mortgage broker and says "sign me up". People in the US live and die by their credit rating (its something along the lines of points out of a thousand.. bill gates presumably being onethousand, and me being one).

Lender lends to Punter A and then hives off the debt (along with a bunch of others) to Lender B: Lender A takes a face value discount but gets money up front, plus the fees... this is a standard commercial transaction, and exactly what happens with your HP at Norman Harvey or whatever).

Here's where the subprime thing gets in: The various loans are split into different tranches: so all the "Good" ones go in one basket and that's sold on: so people with good credit history, lots of equity, and such (the easy ones from a lender perspective) go to one lender and they cause no problem.

The problem ones (no equity, bad credit history) get bundled and put into a basket with high risk high return type investors: and they're the ones that are falling over willy nilly.

Add to that mix some derivatives trading in these ones (basically lenders trying to lay off risk) and it gets very volatile, and very fragile. And lo, they fall over. Taking the whole easy credit arena with them.

There are a bunch of knock on effects also which are now affecting the "good" borrowers.

The problem goes a bit further than the mongs who borrowed to much to buy their WRXs/ Plasma TVs and the reet-companies who lended them the cash in the first place. From my reading there seems to be a nice ripple effect in place as the financial markets discover good debt mixed with bad. I should also note that oil is about to hit it's highest price ever and this time it's not because OPEC are giving the West wedgies (as it was in the 70s.)

The question seems to be can the world financial institutions manage this into a graceful stagnation/ slow burn or are we heading towards something more like 1987 or (Jebus help us) 1929?

Your thoughts viewers?

I should really stop calling things on the interwebby. OK I tend to be slightly out (I called the price of oil at $US100 a barrel by the end of 2007 and it hit Jan 3rd 2008) but I reckon I've been doing pretty well so far...

...damn it...
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Postby dented on Tue 18/Mar/08 8:12am

Stock markets had a gasp overnight....
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RE: Re: Who Wants To Call A World Economic Crunch By Easter

Postby Flyboy on Tue 18/Mar/08 8:40am

Tama wrote: I should really stop calling things on the interwebby. OK I tend to be slightly out (I called the price of oil at $US100 a barrel by the end of 2007 and it hit Jan 3rd 2008) but I reckon I've been doing pretty well so far...

...damn it...


Yeah, good call, bad subject. use your powers for good Tama-not for bringing down the world ecomony! PM me the Big Wednesday numbers instead, Ill even give you the Aston if I win!
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Postby Tama on Tue 18/Mar/08 8:48am

Flyboy wrote:
Tama wrote: I should really stop calling things on the interwebby. OK I tend to be slightly out (I called the price of oil at $US100 a barrel by the end of 2007 and it hit Jan 3rd 2008) but I reckon I've been doing pretty well so far...

...damn it...


Yeah, good call, bad subject. use your powers for good Tama-not for bringing down the world ecomony! PM me the Big Wednesday numbers instead, Ill even give you the Aston if I win!
Seeing I'm always slightly out you'd need to work out which number I got wrong, and by how much :p
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Postby Flyboy on Tue 18/Mar/08 8:51am

Tama wrote:
Flyboy wrote:
Tama wrote: I should really stop calling things on the interwebby. OK I tend to be slightly out (I called the price of oil at $US100 a barrel by the end of 2007 and it hit Jan 3rd 2008) but I reckon I've been doing pretty well so far...

...damn it...


Yeah, good call, bad subject. use your powers for good Tama-not for bringing down the world ecomony! PM me the Big Wednesday numbers instead, Ill even give you the Aston if I win!
Seeing I'm always slightly out you'd need to work out which number I got wrong, and by how much :p


Oh ye of little faith!
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Postby Tama on Tue 18/Mar/08 10:51am

Tama
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Postby STINGRAY on Tue 18/Mar/08 12:12pm

psychavoc wrote: Blast! http://www.stuff.co.nz/4344033a10.html

Time to find those 4c a litre New World vouchers :huh:


pac / n / slave got the 12c ones this week buy $50 of canned food and your away :) :thumbsup:
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