Will their be a World Economic Crunch by Easter 2008?

No - stop stirring the scheisse you naughty man
6
10%
No - we've been through worse in recent history
1
2%
Not a crunch, but more like a significant slow-down
9
15%
Not a slow-down, but more like stagnation
3
5%
It's going to get a bit ugly, but NZ will be pretty insulated
7
12%
It'll be raining sharebrokers for a few days, but no worse than 1987
10
17%
I'm calling the second Great Depression... buttcakes
9
15%
Apocalypse Now! Stock up on canned food and get in your bunker!
15
25%
 
Total voters : 60

Re: Who Wants To Call A World Economic Crunch By Easter 2008?

Postby bugle on Thu 15/Jan/09 10:34am

Dig? Me? No, I actually wanted to know.

As I'm sure your'e aware their is a great deal of misinformed dairy opinion out there and the eventual takeover of the world by The Chinese Overlords is one of my pet topics/rants/conspiracy agendas
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Re: Who Wants To Call A World Economic Crunch By Easter 2008?

Postby Dazzle on Wed 11/Feb/09 6:17pm

Here is some more scare reading, with lots of big words and statistical theory.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/02/ ... ssion.html

The last graph is a big worry. The guy running this website used to do advanced statistical modelling to predict baseball results. Applying those techniques to the US election produced more accurate results than any of the other media sources I was reading at the time.
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Re: Who Wants To Call A World Economic Crunch By Easter 2008?

Postby j2hyde on Thu 12/Feb/09 1:32am

IMO that analysis is meaningless. It does little to address underlying causes, and anyone can find neat little patterns in data without understanding what causes them and the complex interrelationships between all the various factors. Assuming they are even aware of the existence of all said factors/relationships. Which is a very big assumption.

Economists have a pretty crap track record when it comes to predicting the future. As do most of the hard sciences, and they're nowhere near as flaky as economists. Actually I can't think of anyone who is good at predicting the future.
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Re: Who Wants To Call A World Economic Crunch By Easter 2008?

Postby Tama on Wed 18/Feb/09 1:05pm

For those of you who feel like playing the blame game :D

http://timesbusiness.typepad.com/money_ ... runch.html wrote:The 10 people most responsible for the recession

The global financial crisis has evolved into a worldwide recession of epic proportions. Analysts fear the sudden slump which has followed the credit crunch could even rival the Great Depression of the early 1930s and lead to global stagnation.

But who is responsible?

The bursting of the housing bubble and the collapse in confidence throughout financial markets was not caused by one individual or a single decision, so pointing the finger of blame is a near-impossible task. But Times Money has given it a shot anyway. Here are ten suggestions for the nine men and one woman responsible for the mess we're in. Once you have read our notes, vote in our poll and make your own suggestions in the comment box at the end of the piece
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Re: Who Wants To Call A World Economic Crunch By Easter 2008?

Postby happybaboon on Wed 18/Feb/09 1:57pm

Thats the best photo of W yet :lol:
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E Dogg Capizzle
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Re: Who Wants To Call A World Economic Crunch By Easter 2008?

Postby E Dogg Capizzle on Tue 10/Mar/09 3:27pm

Yeah, it's great. :D
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Re: Who Wants To Call A World Economic Crunch By Easter 2008?

Postby Tama on Fri 13/Mar/09 8:29am

Good read:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/11/busin ... f=business wrote:Sixteen years ago, two economists published a research paper with a delightfully simple title: “Looting.”

The economists were George Akerlof, who would later win a Nobel Prize, and Paul Romer, the renowned expert on economic growth. In the paper, they argued that several financial crises in the 1980s, like the Texas real estate bust, had been the result of private investors taking advantage of the government. The investors had borrowed huge amounts of money, made big profits when times were good and then left the government holding the bag for their eventual (and predictable) losses.

In a word, the investors looted. Someone trying to make an honest profit, Professors Akerlof and Romer said, would have operated in a completely different manner. The investors displayed a “total disregard for even the most basic principles of lending,” failing to verify standard information about their borrowers or, in some cases, even to ask for that information.

The investors “acted as if future losses were somebody else’s problem,” the economists wrote. “They were right.”
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Re: Who Wants To Call A World Economic Crunch By Easter 2008?

Postby E Dogg Capizzle on Sat 14/Mar/09 9:09am

Jon Stewart was awesome in last night's show. :)
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Re: Who Wants To Call A World Economic Crunch By Easter 2008?

Postby nostromo on Sat 14/Mar/09 9:47am

The Chinese seem to be saying they predict recovery for them by the end of this year, and back to strong growth next year.
Who the fuck knows.
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":-("
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Re: Who Wants To Call A World Economic Crunch By Easter 2008?

Postby bugle on Sat 14/Mar/09 4:16pm

The Chinese Overlords time is drawing near, begin stage 2 of chopstick proficiency
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Re: Who Wants To Call A World Economic Crunch By Easter 2008?

Postby Joel on Sat 14/Mar/09 4:38pm

bugle wrote:The Chinese Overlords time is drawing near, begin stage 2 of chopstick proficiency

we will all be working in the paddy fields
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Re: Who Wants To Call A World Economic Crunch By Easter 2008?

Postby bugle on Sat 14/Mar/09 4:47pm

Joel wrote:
bugle wrote:The Chinese Overlords time is drawing near, begin stage 2 of chopstick proficiency

we will all be working in the paddy fields


John Key knows, hence his proposal to build the long track...
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Natral
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