Will their be a World Economic Crunch by Easter 2008?

No - stop stirring the scheisse you naughty man
6
10%
No - we've been through worse in recent history
1
2%
Not a crunch, but more like a significant slow-down
9
15%
Not a slow-down, but more like stagnation
3
5%
It's going to get a bit ugly, but NZ will be pretty insulated
7
12%
It'll be raining sharebrokers for a few days, but no worse than 1987
10
17%
I'm calling the second Great Depression... buttcakes
9
15%
Apocalypse Now! Stock up on canned food and get in your bunker!
15
25%
 
Total voters : 60

Postby propster on Mon 12/Nov/07 1:06pm

Tama wrote:
propster wrote:Yes it is, if my parents hear about that, i'm out of home and they'll be selling the house FAST for half a mill while it lasts.
You don't have anything to worry about - they're too late: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/metro/story.c ... d=10475418 :)


Damn, just as QV added $100,000 to the value of our property.

I'll just go pack my bags :lol:
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Postby Tama on Mon 12/Nov/07 1:08pm

propster wrote:
Tama wrote:
propster wrote:Yes it is, if my parents hear about that, i'm out of home and they'll be selling the house FAST for half a mill while it lasts.
You don't have anything to worry about - they're too late: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/metro/story.c ... d=10475418 :)


Damn, just as QV added $100,000 to the value of our property.

I'll just go pack my bags :lol:
You do realize that a noticeable part of the problem in New Zealand has been caused by people believing that because their house is magically worth more money they have suddenly become magically richer? :eh:
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Postby propster on Mon 12/Nov/07 1:11pm

Tama wrote:
propster wrote:
Tama wrote:
propster wrote:Yes it is, if my parents hear about that, i'm out of home and they'll be selling the house FAST for half a mill while it lasts.
You don't have anything to worry about - they're too late: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/metro/story.c ... d=10475418 :)


Damn, just as QV added $100,000 to the value of our property.

I'll just go pack my bags :lol:
You do realize that a noticeable part of the problem in New Zealand has been caused by people believing that because their house is magically worth more money they have suddenly become magically richer? :eh:


Yes, although our house has always been just going on the same curve as the economy, so we haven't got any richer. Plus mum spends too much money, she just got a $1.50 pay rise so i forced her to bank it.
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Postby CrustyMTB on Mon 12/Nov/07 1:11pm

Tama wrote:
propster wrote:
Tama wrote:
propster wrote:Yes it is, if my parents hear about that, i'm out of home and they'll be selling the house FAST for half a mill while it lasts.
You don't have anything to worry about - they're too late: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/metro/story.c ... d=10475418 :)


Damn, just as QV added $100,000 to the value of our property.

I'll just go pack my bags :lol:
You do realize that a noticeable part of the problem in New Zealand has been caused by people believing that because their house is magically worth more money they have suddenly become magically richer? :eh:
But they are richer (asset wise) in the same way as Bill Gates is only rich while M-soft shares are worth $$, are you claiming that Bill is poor? :eh:

$$ Wealth is about belief, mostly other peoples...
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Postby Tama on Mon 12/Nov/07 1:16pm

CrustyMTB wrote:But they are richer (asset wise) in the same way as Bill Gates is only rich while M-soft shares are worth $$, are you claiming that Bill is poor? :eh:

$$ Wealth is about belief, mostly other peoples...

Yes, but people seem to have trouble differentiating between the following two statements:

A) "Your house is worth $500,000."

and

B) "Here is a suitcase filled with $500,000 I will give you in exchange for your house."
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Postby phunk on Mon 12/Nov/07 1:24pm

:pmob: One is more liquid than the other :eh:
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Postby Tama on Mon 12/Nov/07 1:27pm

phunk wrote: :pmob: One is more liquid than the other :eh:
Yes, and one has a value that is less based on speculation and involves significant commitment from the person making the statement.
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Postby way_downsouth on Mon 12/Nov/07 1:31pm

propster wrote: All this doom is making me feel awful.


Anyone with knowledge care to say what happens to money in the bank?? Does it stay safe (providing the bank is safe) and just lose it's value with respect to the value of the nation's currency?


Simple, the bank takes your money and gives it to someone else who pays more money.

In NZ, banks are required to have a certain amount of money invested themselves (there are a range of measure that are used, so it is a bit difficult to explain).

If the too many of the individuals that the bank has lent your money to cannot repay it (which is quite uncommon, because banks are not big on unsecured lending) the bank has cashflow problems. It the cannot give you money when you go to withdraw it from the bank and goes broke.

In NZ, bank deposits are not insured.

Thankfully there are a lot of measures and rules for banks that prevent them going broke.

Regardless of where you put your money, it is still suceptible (sp?) to currency fluctuations (the big banks can impact the exchange rate, but tend to avoid it) and inflation
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Postby j2hyde on Mon 12/Nov/07 2:29pm

Property value is not increasing. Inflation is, hence rising interest rates.

There is no way in hell that supposed capital gain of 15% pa in any way represents the future earning potential of that property.
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Postby way_downsouth on Mon 12/Nov/07 3:23pm

j2hyde wrote: Property value is not increasing. Inflation is, hence rising interest rates.

There is no way in hell that supposed capital gain of 15% pa in any way represents the future earning potential of that property.


I would say at the moment, property value is increasing (as the values increase more than inflation).

Yes, interest rates are high, due to high inflation.

No, there is no indication of what the future will bring, however, I spend a bit of time on stats.govt.nz for work and note that the population clock just keeps going and all those people need to live somewhere.
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Postby Henry Dorset Case on Mon 12/Nov/07 3:31pm

michael wrote: Government bailouts a-plenty this christmas...


they*ve already promised lollies next year for the election, the bunch of dirty fuckers.



*Clark, Cullen and that red cabal otherwise known as the gummint.
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Postby Henry Dorset Case on Mon 12/Nov/07 3:34pm

Tama wrote:
CrustyMTB wrote:But they are richer (asset wise) in the same way as Bill Gates is only rich while M-soft shares are worth $$, are you claiming that Bill is poor? :eh:

$$ Wealth is about belief, mostly other peoples...

Yes, but people seem to have trouble differentiating between the following two statements:

A) "Your house is worth $500,000."

and

B) "Here is a suitcase filled with $500,000 I will give you in exchange for your house."


take the $500000 cash, buy gold, black pepper, non perishable food items, guns and lots of ammunition.

Join me and my band of dedicated followers in my fortified hideaway in the port hills as we await the end times.
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"[b]DO THEY SPEAK ENGLISH IN WHAT?[/b]"
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Postby Stun on Mon 26/Nov/07 1:22am

Henry Dorset Case wrote:
Tama wrote:
CrustyMTB wrote:But they are richer (asset wise) in the same way as Bill Gates is only rich while M-soft shares are worth $$, are you claiming that Bill is poor? :eh:

$$ Wealth is about belief, mostly other peoples...

Yes, but people seem to have trouble differentiating between the following two statements:

A) "Your house is worth $500,000."

and

B) "Here is a suitcase filled with $500,000 I will give you in exchange for your house."


take the $500000 cash, buy gold, black pepper, non perishable food items, guns and lots of ammunition.

Join me and my band of dedicated followers in my fortified hideaway in the port hills as we await the end times.


Got Napalm?
Stun
Member for: 15 years 6 months

Postby JumpR on Mon 26/Nov/07 8:59am

Hasn't this so called crunch been coming since 2000... and then again in 2001... and then again in 2002... and then again in 2003... and then again in 2004... (and so on...)

Maybe they'll be correct this time round, or maybe they won't?

Hope vorb has a contingency.. if a crunch does come it could also be in the stook? Sponsors like airlines and finance companies may not be around to advertise.. And browsing the web may be too much of a luxury for people to afford.. Oh noes then end of vorb in nigh...
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Postby mitch7 on Mon 26/Nov/07 5:43pm

I failed economics, now I is one !
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