When will sea levels rise to 2 metres above it's current level?

By the end of 2010
0
No votes
By the end of 2020
1
7%
By the end of 2030
1
7%
By the end of 2040
0
No votes
By the end of 2050
0
No votes
By the end of 2060
0
No votes
By the end of 2070
1
7%
By the end of 2080
0
No votes
By the end of 2090
0
No votes
By the end of 2100
5
33%
By the end of 2150
0
No votes
By the end of 2200
2
13%
It will never happen
5
33%
 
Total voters : 15

The Rising Sea Level Poll

Postby Tama on Fri 17/Apr/09 8:24am

As large amounts of ice are now melting in the Arctic and the Antarctic it's now pretty obvious that yes the world is getting hotter. This will impact on the sea levels if the large amounts of land based ice (Antarctica and Greenland) melt and slide into the ocean - but when will this happen, and to what extent?

Do you see this as a short term hazard, something your children will have to deal with, something your grandchildren will have to deal with, or some sort of hippy fairy tale?

So to take a fairly conservative number relative when do you think the sea level will rise to 2 metres above it's current level? For fun and games you can see how a 2 metre rise would effect New Zealand here: http://flood.firetree.net/?ll=-39.8254,172.4414&m=2

For reference last century the sea levels rose by 20 centimetres (see graph below). There's lot's of info here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise - and lot's of current news here: http://news.google.co.nz/news?pz=1&ned= ... q=ice+melt

Please be voting on the poll :)
Recent_Sea_Level_Rise.png
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Re: The Rising Sea Level Poll

Postby j2hyde on Fri 17/Apr/09 9:08am

Hey Hey! From the same wikipedia page...
300px-Post-Glacial_Sea_Level.png
300px-Holocene_Sea_Level.png
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Re: The Rising Sea Level Poll

Postby j2hyde on Fri 17/Apr/09 9:13am

Anyone might have thought that the sea level had been rising for thousands of years! Furthermore, look at the error bars on the Holocene chart, they show a high degree of variability. Maybe, just maybe the 100 year chart posted above has a temporal resolution issue?
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Re: The Rising Sea Level Poll

Postby Tama on Fri 17/Apr/09 9:15am

j2hyde wrote:Anyone might have thought that the sea level had been rising for thousands of years!

Probably because it has!

j2hyde wrote:Furthermore, look at the error bars on the Holocene chart, they show a high degree of variability. Maybe, just maybe the 100 year chart posted above has a temporal resolution issue?

That's all well and good but what's your pick for the poll? :eh:
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Re: The Rising Sea Level Poll

Postby Jono on Fri 17/Apr/09 9:20am

I have a problem with the poll - it's like those stupid ones asking for forecasts on empirical data. I have no idea when there's going to be a 2m sea level rise.There is no way that I can intelligently interpret the data because I'm not a climate scientist. Polls of this type are about as useful as ones saying "will it be sunny tomorrow?"

A better question would be something along the lines of "current projections show sea level rising by X cm over the next 50 years. What should be done about this?"

that's my morning rant out of the way anyway...
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Re: The Rising Sea Level Poll

Postby phunk on Fri 17/Apr/09 9:21am

I dont know what will happen to the sea level, but I know the best way to deal with any eventuality is not to make ourselves poorer by trying in vain to stop it with silly carbon trading and all the other warmist nonsense. Wealthy economies and people will be much better equiped to deal with any sea level changes which are largely out of our control.
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Re: The Rising Sea Level Poll

Postby Tama on Fri 17/Apr/09 9:24am

Jono wrote:I have a problem with the poll - it's like those stupid ones asking for forecasts on empirical data. I have no idea when there's going to be a 2m sea level rise.There is no way that I can intelligently interpret the data because I'm not a climate scientist. Polls of this type are about as useful as ones saying "will it be sunny tomorrow?"

A better question would be something along the lines of "current projections show sea level rising by X cm over the next 50 years. What should be done about this?"

I'm polling the perceptions of people about sea level rise. There's been a lot of media attention recent about the breaking up ice sheets in the Antarctic and I was wondering if people were beginning to perceive sea level rise as a problem in their lifetime.

Your question is completely different - it infers that everyone accepts that sea level rise is a problem. Looking at the results so far this doesn't seem to be the case :)
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Re: The Rising Sea Level Poll

Postby Scaredy_Cat on Fri 17/Apr/09 9:26am

I think that, just maybe, someone is avoiding doing some nasty coding?? :p
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Re: The Rising Sea Level Poll

Postby j2hyde on Fri 17/Apr/09 9:32am

Jono wrote:I have no idea when there's going to be a 2m sea level rise.


Exactly! The fact is that nobody knows when that will happen.

Personally, I'm certain it will happen (as it has countless times in the past) but trying to quantatively predict when is pretty much impossible.
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Re: The Rising Sea Level Poll

Postby E Dogg Capizzle on Fri 17/Apr/09 9:40am

j2hyde wrote:
Personally, I'm certain it will happen (as it has countless times in the past) but trying to quantatively predict when is pretty much impossible.


I want facts not rhetoric!!!!!
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Re: The Rising Sea Level Poll

Postby Oli on Fri 17/Apr/09 9:43am

I think Phunk is on to it - let's heavily industrialise to prevent global warming! :thumbsup:
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Re: The Rising Sea Level Poll

Postby BrokenKonaRider on Fri 17/Apr/09 9:46am

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Re: The Rising Sea Level Poll

Postby j2hyde on Fri 17/Apr/09 9:46am

E Dogg Capizzle wrote:I want facts not rhetoric!!!!!


Well you've come to the right place :D
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Re: The Rising Sea Level Poll

Postby phunk on Fri 17/Apr/09 9:58am

Oli wrote:I think Phunk is on to it - let's heavily industrialise to prevent global warming! :thumbsup:


At what point did I mention industrialising?
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Re: The Rising Sea Level Poll

Postby Oli on Fri 17/Apr/09 10:01am

How do your get your economy wealthy without it?
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Member for: 12 years 2 months

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