Will The U S A Disintegrate In The Next 10 Years?

Postby Tama on Mon 12/Jan/09 11:03am

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html wrote:MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.

In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."

Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.

But it's his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.

A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.

"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says.
P1-AO116_RUSPRO_NS_20081228191715.gif
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Re: Will The U S A Disintegrate In The Next 10 Years?

Postby Trail on Mon 12/Jan/09 11:11am

so it will be the DSA - disunited states of america??
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Re: Will The U S A Disintegrate In The Next 10 Years?

Postby thorg on Mon 12/Jan/09 11:16am

I thought Alaska would more likely go to the Canadians - but I know nothing of international politics except for the standard line of "It's all America's fault - the <bird flu/global warming/peak oil/prime market collapse/new liberalism/old comunism/carbon footprint/consumerism/starbucks/SUVs> will be our downfall" :)
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Re: Will The U S A Disintegrate In The Next 10 Years?

Postby Henry Dorset Case on Mon 12/Jan/09 11:35am

Then that Palin bitch REALLY will be able to see Russia from her house.


Thats an interesting concept. I would pick California splitting into northern and southern parts as well.

Of course, if the entire concept of the nation-state isn't dead in the water by then.

Durka Durka Mohammed Jihad
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Re: Will The U S A Disintegrate In The Next 10 Years?

Postby Jono on Mon 12/Jan/09 11:41am

Heh - Bruce Sterling wrote an entertaining book several years ago about disintegration within the US. He saw the military in various places using GPS transponders in civilian vehicles linked to demographic databases to target civilians to be pulled over asking for donations. I read another book recently (black man - can't remember the author) which had a similar split between the eastern seaboard (mostly run by the UN), the western seaboard (a californian commerce combine), and the rest (referred to as jesusland).
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Re: Will The U S A Disintegrate In The Next 10 Years?

Postby Henry Dorset Case on Mon 12/Jan/09 11:43am

thorg wrote:I thought Alaska would more likely go to the Canadians - but I know nothing of international politics except for the standard line of "It's all America's fault - the <bird flu/global warming/peak oil/prime market collapse/new liberalism/old comunism/carbon footprint/consumerism/starbucks/SUVs> will be our downfall" :)


The Russkis will want it because of its boundless natural resources. Lot of oil and gas under that ice and caribou.

and the Canadians won't be able to defend it against the might of the Red Army.

Stalingrad = Toronto......
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Re: Will The U S A Disintegrate In The Next 10 Years?

Postby Jono on Mon 12/Jan/09 11:49am

...but personally, I would be very surprised to see the disintegration of the US. Especially by 2010. "USA will fall apart by 2010" is just the sort of thing that you would expect from a long-time rival like Russia.
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Re: Will The U S A Disintegrate In The Next 10 Years?

Postby Joel on Mon 12/Jan/09 11:54am

Jono wrote:...but personally, I would be very surprised to see the disintegration of the US. Especially by 2010. "USA will fall apart by 2010" is just the sort of thing that you would expect from a long-time rival like Russia.
what does nostrodamus say about the matter?
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Re: Will The U S A Disintegrate In The Next 10 Years?

Postby bugle on Mon 12/Jan/09 1:02pm

Vaguely relevant and interesting...
qxou4g.jpg
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Re: Will The U S A Disintegrate In The Next 10 Years?

Postby bugle on Mon 12/Jan/09 1:05pm

Jono wrote:I read another book recently (black man - can't remember the author) which had a similar split between the eastern seaboard (mostly run by the UN), the western seaboard (a californian commerce combine), and the rest (referred to as jesusland).


Richard Morgan
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Re: Will The U S A Disintegrate In The Next 10 Years?

Postby radical_edward on Mon 12/Jan/09 4:00pm

Henry Dorset Case wrote: I would pick California splitting into northern and southern parts as well.


Naw. California has enough of an economy to prevent the pacific coast and the desert states from looking eastwards.

After the desert states, it is govt subsidised cornfields and biker meth labs all the way to the Appalachians. If the country breaks up, the tax liability states will go back to being the dust bowl.
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Re: Will The U S A Disintegrate In The Next 10 Years?

Postby j2hyde on Mon 12/Jan/09 5:09pm

Hah, that's hilarious. California run by China???? Sure.
That theory says a lot more about the Russians than it does the Americans.

A slightly cooler concept is that of Oceania:

BC, Alberta, Oregon, Washington, California

I can't remember if the American Rocky Mtn states or Alaska were included. It would be super awesome, all the good bits of Nth Am, none of the crap parts (well, Socal, but nothing's perfect).
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Re: Will The U S A Disintegrate In The Next 10 Years?

Postby nostromo on Mon 12/Jan/09 9:56pm

A bit ridiculous, the map especially. What I think far more likely is a long fade from awesomeness to irrelevancy - Roman empire style.
Witness the decline of the big three car makers, to me its symptomatic. Their industries have been on the decline for 40 years.
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Re: Will The U S A Disintegrate In The Next 10 Years?

Postby happybaboon on Mon 12/Jan/09 10:07pm

bugle wrote:Vaguely relevant and interesting...


Lame. Why do we have to be the very most redneck state?? I don't want to be from Arkansas :(
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Re: Will The U S A Disintegrate In The Next 10 Years?

Postby PhilterNZ on Tue 13/Jan/09 7:31am

bugle wrote:
Jono wrote:I read another book recently (black man - can't remember the author) which had a similar split between the eastern seaboard (mostly run by the UN), the western seaboard (a californian commerce combine), and the rest (referred to as jesusland).


Richard Morgan


It was also released under the title "Thirteen" . It was not bad.
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