Re: The New Forester Xt - Thoughts?

Postby dwgknz on Fri 29/Apr/16 4:40pm

RJD wrote:1/2 million orders so far.. Ok it might not be a tesla on everyone's drive but ICE cars days are numbered. Eventually. Will still take 15-20 years for them to be the majority.


At least 20 to even make a dent. Need some distributions charts and the like to be more than a guess but with a 12 year old mean age of fleet every new car sold within 3 years would have to be electric to meet the majority at 15. Even with a gdp explosion you'd still need to legislate the fuck out of everything to start culling the current fleet and driving the market. But our lawmakers are pussys.

In 15 years I bet we nearly have a road user charging model that works for EVs. They won't do anything till they can pay for the roads and any shift in market share with the current moratorium in place reduces growth in the land transport fund.
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Re: The New Forester Xt - Thoughts?

Postby Dougal on Fri 29/Apr/16 4:48pm

RJD wrote:1/2 million orders so far.. Ok it might not be a tesla on everyone's drive but ICE cars days are numbered. Eventually. Will still take 15-20 years for them to be the majority.


Electric cars are ideal for city commuting. Outside that I'm not seeing it. Tesla is collecting deposits but has nothing to show other than a mockup. They'll need far more than those deposits simply to build facilities to manufacture. Otherwise they'll be blowing out delivery dates by many years and refunding deposits left, right and centre. This is before they actually finish the design and present a car that likely won't match the hype.

Then we've got the other car companies which will have their mid price electric car out for sale long before the model 3. That'll eat into their pre-orders too.

But one major problem that no-one seems to discuss. How can people who can't keep cellphones charged be expected to run an electric car?
Dougal
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Re: The New Forester Xt - Thoughts?

Postby Dougal on Fri 29/Apr/16 4:53pm

dwgknz wrote:In 15 years I bet we nearly have a road user charging model that works for EVs. They won't do anything till they can pay for the roads and any shift in market share with the current moratorium in place reduces growth in the land transport fund.


Current EV exemption from RUC will expire in 2020 or earlier if electrics grow to 1% of the fleet.

So I'm paying 32c/kwh for power, an electric car is using about 15 kwh per 100km and RUC of about 6c/km. That's about 10.8c/km total cost.

A 4wd Diesel car at 6 litres/100km and 89c/litre (I fillup at truck stops) with 6c/km RUC is 11.34 c/km total cost.
Dougal
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Re: The New Forester Xt - Thoughts?

Postby dwgknz on Fri 29/Apr/16 5:08pm

And you get cheap power down south. Auckland, where EVs will be concentrated, pay a lot more.
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Re: The New Forester Xt - Thoughts?

Postby Dougal on Fri 29/Apr/16 6:25pm

dwgknz wrote:And you get cheap power down south. Auckland, where EVs will be concentrated, pay a lot more.


We don't get cheap power. The south island lower price evaporated a long time ago. Now we pay more despite there being 2 power stations within 3km of my house.
Dougal
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Re: The New Forester Xt - Thoughts?

Postby dwgknz on Fri 29/Apr/16 6:57pm

Not sure of the delta during a period of high demand but still a $10 difference in spot prices right now live spot prices
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Re: The New Forester Xt - Thoughts?

Postby Dougal on Fri 29/Apr/16 7:20pm

dwgknz wrote:Not sure of the delta during a period of high demand but still a $10 difference in spot prices right now live spot prices


Not many houses on spot prices........
Dougal
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Re: The New Forester Xt - Thoughts?

Postby RJD on Fri 29/Apr/16 8:45pm

Dougal wrote:Tesla is collecting deposits but has nothing to show other than a mockup.


They have people driving round in model 3's Not a production model 3 but thats hardly a mockup.
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Re: The New Forester Xt - Thoughts?

Postby Dougal on Fri 29/Apr/16 9:24pm

RJD wrote:
Dougal wrote:Tesla is collecting deposits but has nothing to show other than a mockup.


They have people driving round in model 3's Not a production model 3 but thats hardly a mockup.


The car they showed at the big reveal a few weeks ago was a mockup and since then it's been computer renders. Where do we find these actual cars being driven?
Dougal
Member for: 15 years 7 months

Re: The New Forester Xt - Thoughts?

Postby Wobbler on Fri 29/Apr/16 10:20pm

Dougal wrote:
RJD wrote:
Dougal wrote:Tesla is collecting deposits but has nothing to show other than a mockup.


They have people driving round in model 3's Not a production model 3 but thats hardly a mockup.


The car they showed at the big reveal a few weeks ago was a mockup and since then it's been computer renders. Where do we find these actual cars being driven?


late 2017 as per what tesla have said all along :eh:
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Re: The New Forester Xt - Thoughts?

Postby RJD on Sat 30/Apr/16 3:10pm

Dougal wrote:
RJD wrote:
Dougal wrote:Tesla is collecting deposits but has nothing to show other than a mockup.


They have people driving round in model 3's Not a production model 3 but thats hardly a mockup.


The car they showed at the big reveal a few weeks ago was a mockup and since then it's been computer renders. Where do we find these actual cars being driven?



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62CGXEeS0VY
RJD
Member for: 10 years 7 months

Re: The New Forester Xt - Thoughts?

Postby Dougal on Sat 30/Apr/16 3:27pm

RJD wrote:
Dougal wrote:
RJD wrote:
Dougal wrote:Tesla is collecting deposits but has nothing to show other than a mockup.


They have people driving round in model 3's Not a production model 3 but thats hardly a mockup.


The car they showed at the big reveal a few weeks ago was a mockup and since then it's been computer renders. Where do we find these actual cars being driven?



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62CGXEeS0VY


That's the mockup. Looks like it's being filmed. Now we wait almost 2 years to see if the production version is working.
Dougal
Member for: 15 years 7 months

Re: The New Forester Xt - Thoughts?

Postby Wobbler on Sat 30/Apr/16 4:37pm

You know tesla has made other models before right? Are you expecting the 2 years to come up and they go, ah fuck turns out we didnt have shit done guys?
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Re: The New Forester Xt - Thoughts?

Postby Dougal on Sat 30/Apr/16 5:45pm

Wobbler wrote:You know tesla has made other models before right? Are you expecting the 2 years to come up and they go, ah fuck turns out we didnt have shit done guys?


Yes I know tesla. I also know 18 months is an impossible time frame to crank out half a million cars of a new model. It's not enough time to build the factory and tool it up. Not to mention all your suppliers tooling up and gearing up.

I mean look at Delorean.
Dougal
Member for: 15 years 7 months

Re: The New Forester Xt - Thoughts?

Postby RJD on Sat 30/Apr/16 5:52pm

No one has said they will crank out 1/2 million on day 1..

But $21bn on the order books I think they will manage to make a few...
RJD
Member for: 10 years 7 months

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