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thekiwi
Thrashed
Joined: Jan 06, 2005
Posts: 1,630
Location: 127.0.0.1
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 Posted: Mon 12th May 6:21am Post subject: Kiwis Ready To Leave Car At Home |
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| http://www.stuff.co.nz/4521911a19715.html wrote: | Kiwis ready to leave car at home
By KERRY WILLIAMSON - The Dominion Post | Monday, 12 May 2008
A dramatic shift away from private vehicles is looming, with a quarter of Kiwis preparing to leave their cars at home if the price of petrol hits $2 a litre.
Poll results released to The Dominion Post by the New Zealand Business Council for Sustainable Development, suggest the $2 mark for a litre of unleaded 91 will be a tipping point for motorists.
The $2 mark has been reached in the Coromandel, West Coast, Northland and the East Coast. The vast majority of those polled expect petrol prices to rise further in the next two years.
The survey results, part of a ShapeNZ online poll of 2047 people, came as the price of a barrel of crude hit a record US$126 (about NZ$160) on Friday.
Petrol prices in most parts of New Zealand remained at $1.89 a litre yesterday.
Almost a quarter of those surveyed said they had significantly cut petrol use because of high prices, while 23 per cent said they would significantly reduce petrol use if the price hit $2 a litre.
The next significant tipping point would come at $3 a litre, a grim possibility if crude prices hit the forecast US$200 a barrel.
Last week the Government backed off introducing an emissions tax on fuels in the face of growing concern over the rising cost of living. It also backed away from a regional fuel tax, expected to become law on July 1.
If people are forced from their cars, many are unsure how they will commute.
In Wellington City - with the highest public transport usage in New Zealand - just 52 per cent said they had a viable alternative to their car. |
Direct link to report: http://www.nzbcsd.org.nz/story.asp?id=899
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thekiwi
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| Posted: Mon 12th May 6:23am Post subject: |
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Whilst no doubt some people are beginning to really hurt with the price of petrol continuing its rice along with basic food items, decreasing our reliance on fossil fules and changing NZ'ers mindset on the use of the car I feel is good thing.
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thekiwi
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Slim
Mangled
Joined: Aug 15, 2003
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Location: Opawa
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| Posted: Mon 12th May 7:17am Post subject: |
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people say, once it gets to $2, then they will say once it gets to $2.10, then it'll be $2.20 I am not convinced that it will get people out of cars.
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Tugboat
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| Posted: Mon 12th May 7:22am Post subject: |
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Since the current public transport infrastructure won't cope with this forecast influx of ex-car commuters how will they travel? I seriously doubt that all these people will bike.
I call BS that people will ditch their cars at $2 per litre because viable alternatives simply do not exist.
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thekiwi
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| Posted: Mon 12th May 7:26am Post subject: |
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| Tugboat wrote: | Since the current public transport infrastructure won't cope with this forecast influx of ex-car commuters how will they travel? I seriously doubt that all these people will bike.
I call BS that people will ditch their cars at $2 per litre because viable alternatives simply do not exist. |
Not necessarily.
We live Semi Rural and actively Car pool the kids to school (on days when its pouring and not feasible to ride). Doing the Groceries now one family will get what is needed for 2-3 families and even arrange to do the shopping together.
When previously we were a bit flippant with just hopping into the car and doing what was required, we have found many people are planning more and taking into account the cost of transport.
Last edited by thekiwi on Mon 12th May 7:51am; edited 1 time in total |
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slidecontrol
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Joined: Apr 09, 2007
Posts: 1,250
Location: I used to have tourettes, now I'm rolf harris
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| Posted: Mon 12th May 7:40am Post subject: |
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on my daily cycle commute to and from work, I am not seeing any noticeable reduction in car use. its still a good five minute wait to cross Kahikatea drive at 7:55 in the morning.
edited so it makes sense
Last edited by slidecontrol on Mon 12th May 9:39am; edited 1 time in total |
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dented
Mangled
Joined: Oct 03, 2005
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| Posted: Mon 12th May 7:59am Post subject: |
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| Slim wrote: | | people say, once it gets to $2, then they will say once it gets to $2.10, then it'll be $2.20 I am not convinced that it will get people out of cars. |
I agree. I worked in a dairy after school a few years ago. I remember when a pack of Rothmans made the massive jump from $1.75 per pkt to $2.14
People were swearing black and blue that if they ever went up in price again they would stop smoking tailor-mades and switch to roll-your-owns
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ThingOne
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| Posted: Mon 12th May 8:05am Post subject: |
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Petrols still cheap. We just got used to it being silly cheap..
It cost $90 (diesel) return to drive to rotorua this weekend in my Jeep, split between 2 people thats $45 each, could you get there any cheaper by plane or bus ?.
People willl just suck it up and keep paying, it just becomes another expense.
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Tugboat
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Location: Beside the pie warmer.
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| Posted: Mon 12th May 9:37am Post subject: |
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| thekiwi wrote: | | Tugboat wrote: | Since the current public transport infrastructure won't cope with this forecast influx of ex-car commuters how will they travel? I seriously doubt that all these people will bike.
I call BS that people will ditch their cars at $2 per litre because viable alternatives simply do not exist. |
Not necessarily.
We live Semi Rural and actively Car pool the kids to school (on days when its pouring and not feasible to ride). Doing the Groceries now one family will get what is needed for 2-3 families and even arrange to do the shopping together.
When previously we were a bit flippant with just hopping into the car and doing what was required, we have found many people are planning more and taking into account the cost of transport. |
What may happen in semi-rural areas is vastly different to cities such as Auckland and Wellington where congestion problems already occur. I don't see car pooling happening in all but the rarest of cases as most city dwellers would struggle to even know their neighbours by name let alone drive to work with them. Already, peak train and bus services into the CBD are at or very near capacity and with no immediate moves to increase capacity there is no incentive for people not to drive.
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sifter
Moving forward
Joined: Nov 13, 2003
Posts: 10,296
Location: Wellington
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| Posted: Mon 12th May 9:43am Post subject: |
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It will be interesting to see what happens to the price when demand starts to fall as they are predicting here. Is there an economist in the house?
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inzane
Wrecked
Joined: Feb 23, 2005
Posts: 6,456
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| Posted: Mon 12th May 9:47am Post subject: |
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nope... but supply and demand would dictated that the price should fall...
However demand for petroleum products worldwide aint falling yet!!
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Tugboat
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Joined: Mar 28, 2006
Posts: 4,019
Location: Beside the pie warmer.
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| Posted: Mon 12th May 9:49am Post subject: |
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| sifter wrote: | | It will be interesting to see what happens to the price when demand starts to fall as they are predicting here. Is there an economist in the house? |
Simple supply and demand law suggests that there should be a price equilibrium... extraneous factors such as the cartel nature of OPEC and their ability to dictate supply relative to demand kcuf this up somewhat though.
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phunk
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Joined: Feb 28, 2004
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| Posted: Mon 12th May 9:50am Post subject: |
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 Given that the demand for fuel in transportation is only a part of the total demand for petroluem i suspect that it will not impact much on the price at the pump, also demand for fuel is inelastic. At most it may slightly reduce the rate of increase.
nb As with any economic prediction, this one has been pulled out of thin air..
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VERT
Cruzing
Joined: Dec 01, 2002
Posts: 12,099
Location: Somewhere In Time
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| Posted: Mon 12th May 10:01am Post subject: |
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| ThingOne wrote: | Petrols still cheap. We just got used to it being silly cheap..
It cost $90 (diesel) return to drive to rotorua this weekend in my Jeep, split between 2 people thats $45 each, could you get there any cheaper by plane or bus ?.
People willl just suck it up and keep paying, it just becomes another expense. |
thats cheap, it cost me a lot more than that
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