Joined: Dec 25, 2001 Posts: 34,374 Location: Poundland
Posted: Thu 15/Sep/05 4:34pm Post subject: Strategical Voting For Lefty Stirrers
Matt McCarten, Herald on Sunday, pg 33, September 11, 2005
There is no doubt that this election is close and no one wants to waste their vote. I'm constantly asked by people how they should use their two votes to ensure a centre-left government. In the partisan interest of helping the centre-left I offer the following actical guide to killing the right at this election.
Obviously Labour needs to get over 40 per cent of the party vote to have any chance to govern. From their point of view they would like to get to 45 per cent. You can add Jim Anderton to their number. But they will still need the Greens. As I say to soft Green supporters who are thinking of voting Labour, if Labour gets 44 per cent of the party vote and the Greens get 5 per cent of the party vote, that equals 49 per cent. That means that with Anderton they can govern. But if Labour gets 44.1 per cent and the Greens get 4.9 per cent, that equals 44.1 per cent. Let me spell it out even clearer: If the Greens go under 5 per cent they get no seats in parliament at all and Brash becomes Prime Minister. So if you're a soft Green or an independent and want a Labour-Green government, you should give your party vote to the Greens. If you're a die-hard Labourite then, of course, vote Labour.
More worryingly for the centre-left, Winston has been trying to come back into the game in the past few days. Winston's position is that he will support either National or Labour on the basis of which of them gets the most seats. This is music to National's ears and validates their election strategy to go for broke to win the entire centre-right bloc's party vote. It meant killing Act, but it's not like Act supporters have anyone else to vote for. The National campaign is now to get more party votes than Labour. If they achieve this, Brash gets Peter Dunne and New Zealand First and that's enough to govern on current polling. Therefore, it would be a dangerous thing now for National to tell Epsom voters to swing in behind Rodney Hide. If they do, then Act sympathisers who are currently supporting National outside Epsom will realise their party vote won't be wasted. They will see that if Rodney wins Epsom they can swing back to Act who could then get 3-4 per cent of the party vote. But all of that vote comes directly off National in the all-important party vote. Winston and Dunne then are duty bound to support Labour in Government. So, sorry, Rodney, if National wants to win, it means you are history.
Normally the electorate vote has no meaning, but it does in this election. Tariana Turia, Anderton, Dunne and Peters all hold seats and if they win, all their party votes will count and their supporters may well determine the outcome.
So this is how you vote to keep out the right if you are a voter in the following electorates.
Wigram: Labour needs Anderton to win his seat so give him your electorate vote. But his Progressive Party isn't rating more than 0.5 per cent, so any party vote for his party is wasted. Give it to either Labour or the Greens.
Tauranga: Winston will back Brash if he gets back and National gets more votes. Even if he backs Labour he'll stop any progressive policy being advanced. If Winston loses the seat and NZ First goes under 5 per cent in the party vote, then Winston and all his MPs go down. Therefore, you hold your nose and give your electorate vote to the National candidate so Winston loses Tauranga.
Epsom: If Hide can't win this seat then Act is finished. Labour needs to let their supporters tactically vote for Richard Worth.
Ohariu-Belmont: Dunne is safe here, but if he has no other MPs after the election then he will be able to be ignored. Don't vote for United Future as they will go with National if they can.
Te Tai Haururu: Tariana Turia is safe here. Current polling suggests the Maori Party can nationally get only one or two MPs off their party list, but given that they will win four electorates, at least, all their party votes will be wasted. The Maori Party will not support
National and recent polls show that Labour may well need the Maori Party. Maori seat voters should give their electorate vote to the Maori Party electorate candidate. That way the Maori Party will win all seven seats and lock Brash out of government. Maori voters should give their party vote to the Greens. after all, if the Greens get back they will be in government. Having an ally around the cabinet table would be a good thing.
If the left votes strategically then they should win, even it it's tight. Right-wingers should look to Deborah Coddington or Bob Jones for advice. After all, that’s their job.
Matt McCarten Posted purely to watch the right-wing dance
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