Joined: Oct 11, 2005 Posts: 134 Location: Auckward
Posted: Mon 29/Oct/07 9:13pm Post subject:
The problem with Peak Oil is that no-one is sure when it will happen. The godfather of peak oil research, a guy called Hubbert, predicted to the year when the US oil industry would peak in 71, but it wasn't obvious until a few years later. I think he predicted world peak around the early 90s but it was deferred due to the oil shocks of the 70s when OPEC started to take control of their oil and the Iranian hostage drama occurred. This was the first time oil output actually went into decline. A reasonable consensus among some experts in the industry is that Peak will occur in around 2006-2010.
Peak Oil is a bit of a timebomb because by the time historical data proves the moment of Peak, the world is already on the slippery slope into chaos and will be even less prepared to somehow manage the crisis. If it's at all manageable.
A book by Paul Roberts(?) called "The End Of Oil" is well worth reading for an excellent insight into the oil industry. One thing that really stood out in the book for me was a visit he did to Saudi and to study the biggest known field in the world (Gawah I think). It turns out that they are pumping seawater into the well to keep the pressure up; 50% of what comes back out is seawater! And this is ment to be the grand-daddy of all oil reserves! If the Saudis are doing that then the world is looking at or has past Peak. Unless there's a miracle and a multi-billion barrel find turns up soon. Can't see that happening though since all the big players are scaling back investment in prospecting new oil, because the returns are becoming so pitiful...
Pumping water or gas into wells to increase production is common practice internationally. As is dewatering. It's no surprise the Saudis are doing it - everyone is, and that doesn't suggest we have passed peak oil. In any case we wont know when peak has passed till long after for a number of reasons - not least because OPEC countries estimates of oil reserves are complete bulltihs.
If you only take into account oil for transport then we can consider a decline in oil supplies to be something we just have to deal with (high cost to get to work, less holidays overseas etc.) What people don't seem to consider is that all our food supplies are entirely dependent on (cheap) oil. To get 1 calorie of food energy using modern, intensive, chemical fertiliser dependent agriculture, it takes 4 calories of oil energy. I know that my growing veges in my garden has no impact on these ludicrously massive global issues we face, but it may come down to this being a skill that I need to ensure my family is fed.
Joined: Oct 11, 2005 Posts: 134 Location: Auckward
Posted: Tue 30/Oct/07 9:54am Post subject:
Yes, it has become common practise to pump water and gas into wells to boost pressure. But it's common practise because of the fact that major reserves are now dwindling
The following is an excerpt from "The End Of Oil" -
"Billions of people around the world enjoy an unprecedented standard of living based on one thing: oil. Every twenty four hours, we burn 81 million barrels of crude--using it not simply to heat, feed, move or defend ourselves, but to educate, entertain, construct our world then fill it with stuff. Everything we buy, from a McDonalds' hamburger to garden furniture to cancer drugs, represents a measure of energy produced and consumed.
And we need more. With the combined appetites of North America, Europe, Japan and now rapidly-growing China and India, oil demand is rising fast: each year, daily consumptons climbs by nearly 2 million barrels. Consumption is rising so fast that oil companies must discover a new billion-barrel oil field every 2 weeks--or the equivalent of a new North Sea every 18 months.
What's now clear, however, that this pace of consumption is outpacing production. Oil companies are struggling to find new oil fast enough to replace the oil they're currently pumping. Once prolific oil regions, like the North Sea and the United States, have hit production peaks and are now in decline. And little wonder: by some estimates, we've already burned our way through half the easily available oil".
Frankly, I'd rather take it seriously now than wait unitl there is 100% verifiable proof and it's too late. Business as usual just doesn't work in a finite ecosystem. As afluent westerners we live a nice comfortable life that is the product of cheap easy access to energy. Maybe that time is up, and maybe it's worthwhile for humans to reduce their profligate use of a dwindling resource and learn to conserve what's left?
The fact is everything we eat, drink, consume, drive, buy and make has a large if not complete component of oil use in it. We literally eat oil. Oil is a freak of nature, occurring only in very specific conditions. It is a bank deposit created by the sun over millions of years that on a geological timespan is being used up in the blink of an eye.
You just have to look at the price of a barrel of oil now to see that the market is tightening more and more. We were paying less than half a year or two ago.
I also noticed an interesting article in the Herald about the boom in ethanol production using corn in the US. It's really a complete farce. It takes more energy to produce ethanol than the energy output!
Maybe you just don't want to face up to the issue and would prefer denial. Hell, a year ago I thought Hydrogen would save the day and biofuels would ease us into the post oil world. The more I've read about these options the more I realise that they're a false hope that can never compete with the short abundance of oil we've enjoyed up to now.
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