Re: Cycling 3rd Most Fatal Transport Mode Behind Walking + Motos

Postby Wobbler on Wed 29/Jul/09 2:47pm

my flying boat train will be the best form of transport ever
Wobbler
User avatar
Member for: 11 years 10 months

Re: Cycling 3rd Most Fatal Transport Mode Behind Walking + Motos

Postby Chickenman on Wed 29/Jul/09 2:52pm

Tama wrote:I came across an interesting graph in a science magazine which showed the most fatal transport modes according to UN data. The original measurement was in passenger deaths per billion kilometres but I didn't find that very useful so I've converted the stats into the average distance travelled by each before YOU DIE.

10,300,000 km - motorcycle
27,600,000 km - walking
29,700,000 km - cycling
384,000,000 km - car
1,670,000,000 km - van
3,340,000,000 km - boat
5,000,000,000 km - bus
10,000,000,000 km - rail
15,000,000,000 km - plane

So, in short we should all fly everywhere to avoid death. That said it's impressive the comparison of motorcycle to car, or cycling to car for that matter.


Can anybody correlate this to deaths where cars were involved? For Walking, Cycling, and Motorcycles of course.
Chickenman
User avatar
Member for: 15 years 4 months

Re: Cycling 3rd Most Fatal Transport Mode Behind Walking + Motos

Postby sifter on Thu 30/Jul/09 9:17am

sifter wrote:
honeymonster wrote:Now. The real risk. If you cycle for an hour a day, every day of the week, from age 15 to 65, you cycle for 18200 hours in your lifetime. Your actual risk of dying on your bike in your lifetime is 0.001.

I'd say that was insignificant.


Here's an interesting comparison:

assuming you play lotto (10 lines) each of those weeks, that's 10 x 52 x 50 = 26000 lines of lotto.

P(1st div each week) = 10/3838380

P(1st div at least once) = 1 - P(1st div never) = 1 - (1 - 10/3838380)^26000 = 0.065

So, we're 65 times more likely to win 1st div lotto than to die on our bike... (under the various assumptions made...).

Actually, I'm surprised at how large the lotto probability is...


It was large, cos I fucked it up. I counted the 10 lines twice. Should be

P(1st div at least once) = 1 - P(1st div never) = 1 - (1 - 10/3838380)^2600 = 0.00675 < 1% if you assume the 10 lines are different
sifter
User avatar
Member for: 13 years 11 months

Re: Cycling 3rd Most Fatal Transport Mode Behind Walking + Motos

Postby handy-andy on Thu 30/Jul/09 12:35pm

znomit wrote:So whats killing all the pedestrians?


I'd say it's the exertion from walking 27 million kms that will be killing them.
handy-andy
Member for: 9 years 11 months

Cars | Cycle Commuting | Cycling | Motorcycles | Motoring | Mountain Biking | Road Cycling | Sifting - Latest Posts

Who is online

49 Users browsing this website: DotBot, Google [Bot], oldandlazy, Slapheid and 43 guests

REMEBER TO CLICK THE LINKS WHEN BUYING FROM VORB SUPPORTERS


  • Wiggle
  • Chain Reaction Cycles
  • GT Bicycles
  • Merlin Cycles
  • ProBikeKit
  • Torpedo7
  • Vorb Shop