This topic has not been added to any channels. This will make it hard for users to find. Type relevant channels into the Add Channel box to add them.

Another Take On The Polls

Postby Tama on Fri 16/Sep/05 10:29am

My Dad just sent me this e-mail. I asked if I could put it up and he said yes. Interesting stuff.

Brian Easton wrote:I thought you might be interested in the following two charts. They combine four polls (NZH, Fairfax, TV1, TV3), interpolate between polls and project after them (out to tomorrow – a very foolish thing I add).


Briefly they suggest
1. Labour hit its nadir on the 6th Sept and has been slowly recovering.
2. National peaked on 30th August, and has been falling steadily since.
3. Little gains or losses to NZF or Greens but, if you trust the polls, both are above 5 percent (but given what has been going on in Tauranga, who knows).
4. Not much movement in ACT or Maori Party.
5. Some growth in Progressive but this may be the effect of sampling error.
6. UF seems to be a gainer from the falling off from National (as I expected).
7. LPG has always been the dominant party, but was struggling at the end of August.

BUT it does not have enough votes to govern without support from UF, or NZF, or MP.

Couple of other things.
A. Take the last 5 observations with a grain of salt.
B. I don’t trust the polls to give good levels. It is still a close run thing.

As Jim Bolger famously said 'Bugger the Polls'.

But as Nobel prize winning economist Bob Solow famously said of the addicted
gambler's response to the pokie machines in a far from salubrious joint, 'I
know they are crooked but they are the only game in town.'
poll01.gif
poll02.gif
Tama
User avatar
"Come on Ruthie let's dance"
Member for: 18 years 11 months

Postby psychavoc on Fri 16/Sep/05 10:36am

LPG? :eh:
psychavoc
User avatar
"www.celiaridesbikes.com"
Member for: 17 years 4 months

Postby Tama on Fri 16/Sep/05 10:37am

psychavoc wrote:LPG? :eh:
Labour+Progressive+Green
Liquid Petroleum Gas
Lick Puppy Gonads

Take your pick
Tama
User avatar
"Come on Ruthie let's dance"
Member for: 18 years 11 months

Postby E Dogg Capizzle on Fri 16/Sep/05 10:39am

Labour progressives Greens?
E Dogg Capizzle
User avatar
"Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man."
Member for: 18 years 3 months

Postby E Dogg Capizzle on Fri 16/Sep/05 10:39am

BTW, very interesting.
E Dogg Capizzle
User avatar
"Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man."
Member for: 18 years 3 months

Postby happybaboon on Fri 16/Sep/05 10:44am

Maori party has suggested they'll work against National, and the Maori party are quite cosy with the Greens so LPG + MP supporting on confidence with some influence on Maori policy (entrenching Maori seats, which I support - they've been around for almost as long as the normal seats and they represent a significant part of our country).
happybaboon
User avatar
"Proud owner of vorb's largest"
Member for: 18 years 9 months

Postby E Dogg Capizzle on Fri 16/Sep/05 10:55am

happybaboon wrote:Maori party has suggested they'll work against National, and the Maori party are quite cosy with the Greens so LPG + MP supporting on confidence with some influence on Maori policy (entrenching Maori seats, which I support - they've been around for almost as long as the normal seats and they represent a significant part of our country).


Wow, your grasp of recent history is rather vague. How did the Maori party form again? :eh:

If Labour are forced to rely on the MP for support, we are in for interesting times.
E Dogg Capizzle
User avatar
"Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man."
Member for: 18 years 3 months

Postby psychavoc on Fri 16/Sep/05 10:56am

What does the second graph actually plot? I'm a bit confused? Margin of error?
psychavoc
User avatar
"www.celiaridesbikes.com"
Member for: 17 years 4 months

Postby Tama on Fri 16/Sep/05 11:05am

psychavoc wrote:What does the second graph actually plot? I'm a bit confused? Margin of error?
The top graph shows National vs Labour vs LPG

The bottom graph show the minor parties along with the difference between Nationald and LPG
Tama
User avatar
"Come on Ruthie let's dance"
Member for: 18 years 11 months

Postby happybaboon on Fri 16/Sep/05 11:18am

E Dogg Capizzle wrote:
happybaboon wrote:Maori party has suggested they'll work against National, and the Maori party are quite cosy with the Greens so LPG + MP supporting on confidence with some influence on Maori policy (entrenching Maori seats, which I support - they've been around for almost as long as the normal seats and they represent a significant part of our country).


Wow, your grasp of recent history is rather vague. How did the Maori party form again? :eh:

If Labour are forced to rely on the MP for support, we are in for interesting times.


Yes, but they've pledged to work against National, which means keeping them out of Govt because if National gets in, they'll legislate against Maori seats and wipe the Maori party out :baaa:
happybaboon
User avatar
"Proud owner of vorb's largest"
Member for: 18 years 9 months

Postby happybaboon on Fri 16/Sep/05 11:30am

E Dogg Capizzle wrote:
happybaboon wrote:Yes, but they've pledged to work against National, which means keeping them out of Govt because if National gets in, they'll legislate against Maori seats and wipe the Maori party out :baaa:


What does that have to do with the possibility of them working with Labour? :eh:


If they don't support Labour on confidence we'll either have to have another election, or National will win. If National wins, they'll legislate against the Maori seats, thus destroying the Maori party.

My guess is if Labour needs then, HC will call TT/PS and offer to pass legislation protecting the Maori seats like all the other seats in exchange for confidence and supply.

You'll note that neither Labour or MP as a whole are attacking each other - only JT and PS fighting it out over beating up 16 year olds and such. They're keeping their options open.,
happybaboon
User avatar
"Proud owner of vorb's largest"
Member for: 18 years 9 months

Postby |ncary on Fri 16/Sep/05 11:30am

|ncary
User avatar
Member for: 17 years 8 months

Postby psychavoc on Fri 16/Sep/05 11:34am

Tama wrote:.. along with the difference between Nationald and LPG

Ahh. It's LPG minus National, not LPG hyphen National :cool:
psychavoc
User avatar
"www.celiaridesbikes.com"
Member for: 17 years 4 months

Postby E Dogg Capizzle on Fri 16/Sep/05 11:35am

happybaboon wrote:If they don't support Labour on confidence we'll either have to have another election...


You could be in politics with such a talent for pulling facts out of your arse. :D
E Dogg Capizzle
User avatar
"Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man."
Member for: 18 years 3 months

Postby phunk on Fri 16/Sep/05 11:37am

happybaboon wrote:Yes, but they've pledged to work against National, which means keeping them out of Govt because if National gets in, they'll legislate against Maori seats and wipe the Maori party out :baaa:

Aaaactually, they have just come out and said that they would be willing to talk to National. So you lose again :p
phunk
User avatar
Member for: 16 years 9 months

- Latest Posts

Who is online

80 Users browsing this website: Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot] and 78 guests

REMEBER TO CLICK THE LINKS WHEN BUYING FROM VORB SUPPORTERS


  • GT Bicycles
  • ProBikeKit
  • Vorb Shop
  • Wiggle
  • Chain Reaction Cycles